Temporal's $12B Bet: Why Agent Orchestration Checkpoints
Bloomberg reports Temporal is in talks to raise roughly $500 million at a valuation of at least $12 billion, more than doubling its $5 billion February 2026 Series D. The bet is durable execution: workflows that persist across crashes, retry from checkpoints, and survive redeploys — now the backbone of AI agents that run for hours or days. We explain deterministic replay over event-sourced history, price the unit economics of losing an uncheckpointed 6-hour job, compare naive agent loops with durable workflows, and show Temporal Workflow and Activity code with retry policies and idempotent IDs.